Poster presented at the 2024 DoD Energy & Environment Innovation Symposium
Dry and hot conditions are widely recognized as key contributors to wildfire ignition risk. In our case study of the August Complex Fire, we examined that drought conditions in Northern California began in late 2019 and were intensified by multiple extreme heat events through early 2020. We further assessed a range of atmospheric and surface conditions over extended timescales leading up to the fire event.
A key analytical approach involved the use of weather regimes—persistent, large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that influence surface conditions. Notably, a summer Aleutian High regime, characterized with sustained high pressure over Northern California, was present approximately three weeks before the initial fire ignition. This regime supported land-atmosphere interactions that contributed to the drying of vegetation and increased availability of fine fuels.
Although signs of drought and vegetation stress were evident months earlier, above-normal wildfire potential was not formally recognized for the region until June 2020 (NIDIS, 2020). This delay highlights an opportunity to enhance current wildfire prediction models, particularly for longer lead times.
Our research underscores the importance of understanding atmospheric and surface condition evolution in identifying early signals for wildfire occurrence. These findings are being used to inform the development of an AI/ML-based early warning system designed to forecast wildfire occurrence on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (e.g., 2 weeks to 2 months). This model aims to enhance preparedness and mitigation strategies by providing actionable, data-driven insights well ahead of potential ignition events.